Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2025

Publication Title

Journal of Economics and Politics

Abstract

Over the span of just three months, Ohio voters went to the polls to weigh in on three issues concerning the threshold needed to amend the state constitution, abortion, and marijuana. Despite being a Republican-leaning state – per an author’s calculations, its Cook’s Partisan Voter Index is R+6 – the more progressive position won all three votes handily. In August, the coalition supporting the status quo of requiring a simple majority to change the state constitution, a longheld progressive position, won 57.1% of the vote (“The New York Times,” 2023a). In November, voters approved a constitutional amendment to give individuals the “right to carry out one’s own reproductive decisions” by a 56.6% - 43.4% margin, as well as codifying the possession and use of marijuana for people 21-years-old and older by a 57% - 43% margin (“The New York Times,” 2023b). That the progressive position was undefeated in these measures is telling of how the outcome for single-issue ballot initiatives may not align with a state’s partisanship. Perhaps even more interesting is that the coalitions that formed to support these positions were overlapping, yet distinct, even in November when two issues were on the ballot at the same time and despite the similar margins of victory. This manuscript examines why and how the progressive side won these votes in the context of Ohio’s ongoing secular realignment, focusing specifically on the cosmopolitan – traditionalist spectrum, and discusses what these shifts mean for the state’s politics in the near future. We begin by defining the cosmopolitan versus traditionalist divide and place it in the context of the realignment literature. Then, we add context by outlining secular realignment in Ohio and its link to this divide. After that, we derive our hypotheses, namely, that the coalitions supporting each initiative are different and that these victories break down along cosmopolitan – traditionalist lines. After analyzing county-level data from the US Census Bureau, we run a variety of statistical models that demonstrate evidence in support of our hypotheses, finding not only that the cosmopolitan versus traditionalist divide played a key role in these outcomes, but that other factors, such as poverty and region, played subtle roles as well. We end the manuscript by discussing the broader implications of these findings and suggesting avenues for further research.

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