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The purpose of this article is to investigate the rationality of two survey forecasts of selective U. S. macroeconomic performance measures that were widely followed in the financial markets during the 1990-2000 period. The research compares the rationality of survey forecast data from Money Market Services, Inc., and Thomson Financial. This article extends prior research that has evaluated the rationality of Money Market Services data for earlier time periods while also evaluating similar consensus forecast data from Thomson Financial that were widely reported in both Barron's and the Wall Street Journal during the 1990s.


Schirm, David C. "A Comparative Analysis of the Rationality of Consensus Forecasts of U. S. Economic Indicators." Journal of Business 76 (2003): 547-561.

© 2003 University of Chicago Press. Original published version is available at: JSTOR.